EV prices have fluctuated significantly. Are they heading down? Here's what to expect in 2026 and 2027.
The Current Situation
Price History
| Year | Average EV Price (UK) | Trend |
|---|
| 2020 | £44,000 | High |
| 2021 | £46,000 | Peak |
| 2022 | £48,000 | Peak (chip shortage) |
| 2023 | £42,000 | Declining |
| 2024 | £38,000 | Declining |
| 2025 | £35,000 | Declining |
| 2026 | £32,000 (est.) | Continuing decline |
What's Changed
Prices are falling because:
Battery costs decreasingMore competitionProduction scaling upChinese manufacturers entering marketSupply chain normalisingBattery Costs: The Key Factor
Historical Battery Prices
| Year | Cost per kWh | 60kWh Battery Cost |
|---|
| 2015 | £420 | £25,200 |
| 2018 | £220 | £13,200 |
| 2021 | £145 | £8,700 |
| 2024 | £115 | £6,900 |
| 2026 (est.) | £85-95 | £5,100-5,700 |
| 2028 (est.) | £65-80 | £3,900-4,800 |
The battery is 30-40% of EV cost. As battery prices fall, so do EVs.
What to Expect in 2026/2027
Price Predictions
| Segment | Current | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|
| Budget EV | £25,000 | £22,000 | £20,000 |
| Mid-range EV | £35,000 | £30,000 | £27,000 |
| Premium EV | £50,000 | £45,000 | £42,000 |
New Affordable Models Coming
| Model | Expected Price | Expected Date |
|---|
| More Chinese brands | £18,000-25,000 | 2026 |
| Renault 5 Electric | £22,000-28,000 | 2026 |
| VW ID.2 | £22,000-25,000 | 2026-2027 |
| Citroën ë-C3 | £21,000-24,000 | 2026 |
Factors Pushing Prices Down
1. Battery Technology
| Factor | Impact |
|---|
| LFP chemistry | 20-30% cheaper than NMC |
| Manufacturing scale | Economies of scale |
| Cell-to-pack design | Fewer components |
| New chemistries | Sodium-ion coming |
2. Competition
| Source | Effect |
|---|
| Chinese brands (BYD, MG, etc.) | Aggressive pricing |
| Legacy manufacturers | Competing on price |
| New entrants | Disrupting market |
3. Production Scaling
| Factor | Impact |
|---|
| Dedicated EV platforms | Lower production costs |
| Factory automation | Efficiency gains |
| Component standardisation | Bulk savings |
Factors That Could Limit Price Drops
1. Material Costs
| Material | Status |
|---|
| Lithium | Prices volatile |
| Cobalt | Supply concerns |
| Nickel | Demand increasing |
| Rare earths | Geopolitical risks |
2. Tariffs and Trade
| Risk | Potential Impact |
|---|
| Chinese import tariffs | Could raise prices 15-25% |
| Trade wars | Supply chain disruption |
| Local content rules | May limit cheap imports |
3. Inflation
General inflation affects all manufacturing costs.
Should You Wait?
The Waiting Calculation
If you wait 1-2 years:
| Factor | Savings vs Cost |
|---|
| Potential EV price drop | -£2,000-5,000 |
| Fuel costs (petrol, 1 year) | +£1,400 |
| Maintenance (petrol, 1 year) | +£300 |
| Road tax (petrol, 1 year) | +£180 |
| Net position | Marginal or worse |
Waiting a year to save £3,000 on an EV costs you £1,880 in extra petrol costs = net saving of only £1,120.
When to Wait
Current car works fine and is cheap to runYou can wait 2-3+ yearsSpecific new model coming you wantMajor life change coming (move, job, etc.)When to Buy Now
Current car needs replacingYou're spending heavily on fuelGood deal availableCompany car tax savings available nowYou want to start saving immediatelyUsed EV Prices
The Alternative to Waiting
Used EVs offer immediate value:
| Age | Typical Price vs New |
|---|
| 1 year | 20-30% off |
| 2 years | 35-45% off |
| 3 years | 45-55% off |
A 2-year-old EV now is cheaper than waiting 2 years for new EV prices to fall.
What Industry Experts Predict
Consensus View
| Prediction | Confidence |
|---|
| Prices will continue falling | High |
| Under £20,000 EVs by 2027 | Moderate-High |
| Price parity with petrol by 2027-2028 | Moderate |
| Major price drops each year | Uncertain |
Wildcard Factors
| Factor | Potential Impact |
|---|
| Chinese tariffs | Could raise prices significantly |
| Battery breakthrough | Could accelerate price drops |
| Economic recession | Could slash prices (demand drop) |
| Supply chain crisis | Could raise prices |
Summary
| Question | Answer |
|---|
| Will EVs get cheaper? | Yes, trend is clearly downward |
| How much cheaper? | 10-20% drop expected by 2027 |
| Should you wait? | Depends on your current situation |
| Best value now | Used EVs or Chinese brands |
| Best value 2027 | New budget EVs under £20,000 |
The Bottom Line
Yes, EVs will get cheaper. Budget EVs under £20,000 are likely by 2027.
But the maths matters:
Waiting costs money (fuel, tax, maintenance)Used EVs offer value nowThe "right time" is when you need a carIf you need a car now: Buy an EV now. Choose a competitive model (MG4, BYD) or a used EV.
If you can wait 2-3 years: More choices and lower prices will be available, but factor in your running costs in the meantime.
The perfect time to buy is always "just around the corner." The practical time is when you need reliable, affordable transport — and EVs already deliver that.